by Ellen Wedum for the Roswell Daily Record

“China has a plan, India has a plan [and they stick to them, unlike us]. We don’t have a plan. Well, here’s a plan,” declared James Conca, Director of the NMSU Carlsbad Environmental Monitoring and Research Center (CEMRC). It was the second morning of the Re-Energize America conference held at the Corbett Center on the NMSU campus in Las Cruces August 31—September 1.

We had heard our congressman Harry Teague speak of his commitment to eliminating our dependence on foreign oil. Currently we import around 60% of our oil (this concern was echoed by Secretary Chu). Teague declared, “I want my country to be strong and energy-independent.”

We had seen Energy Secretary Chu’s graph showing the dramatic increase in CO 2 concentration in our atmosphere, up to nearly 390 ppm this year, after 400,000 years of a stable fluctuation between about 180 ppm (ice ages) to 300 ppm. Estimates are that the CO 2 concentration will hit 550 ppm by 2050 and 900 ppm by 2100. Chu warned, “If we go with business as usual there is a 50% probability of going 4—5.5 degrees Centigrade warmer worldwide. A 5-degree [9 degrees Fahrenheit] change in the average temperature means a profoundly different world.”

So unless we want to gamble, it looks like we do need a plan!

Conca pointed out that nearly two-thirds of the world total energy use, currently fifteen Trillion kilowatt hours a year, is based on fossil fuels. Energy use is estimated to double, to 30 Trillion kwh, in the next thirty years. Conca’s plan calls for stabilizing our current use of fossil fuels at 10 Trillion kwh per year. This means that in the next 30 years we need to come up with non-fossil fuel sources capable of producing 20 Trillion kwh per year worldwide. “And 3 billion more people will be born by 2040,” he pointed out. Access to energy is essential to quality of life, in terms of prosperity, education and lifespan. There are approximately 6 billion people who are now in, or will be born into, an energy-poor lifestyle. Conca believes that delivering at least 3,000 kwh per person per year to those 6 billion people is essential to getting rid of global poverty, war and terrorism. (Note that in the US, our current consumption averages nearly 14,000 kwh per capita.) “We’d better do this. It is in our best interest,” he warned. Secretary Chu was also adamant on this point. “Energy is essential to prosperity,” he declared.

What are our alternatives to fossil fuels (and the biofuels that mimic them)? Conca compared the nuclear, wind and solar alternatives currently available and estimated, in 2009 dollars, that nuclear power plants are the most cost-effective. The same lifetime production for wind power is 1.6 times more expensive than a nuclear power plant, and solar power comes in at 2.6 times more expensive.

The reason for restraining fossil fuels to 1/3 of the total mix becomes clear when operating and maintenance costs are calculated. O&M for that level of fossil fuel is 3 times higher than for renewables and 4.5 times higher than for nuclear power plants.

And that was just one fifteen-minute presentation in this remarkable two-day conference. There were many other significant presentations, with several voices agreeing on some key points:

 

• Coal provides 50% of US electricity, and both China and India are dedicated to coal power plants. We need to develop clean coal technology. Will the US be the leader, or a follower, a seller, or a buyer, in the development of this and other energy technologies?
• Market regulation (cap and trade) is much better than government regulation. Jeff Sterba of PNM Resources pointed out that government regulation would affect his coal power plant, but not the competing Navajo power plant near his but on the soil of an independent nation.
• Transmission of wind and solar energy from the production point to population centers is going to require a massive effort to build new power lines. Jeremy Turner of the NM Renewable Energy Transportation Authority (RETA) discussed the Sun Zia line, which is still in the BLM public comment stage, and the proposed interstate High Plains Express and Santa Fe lines. One of the difficulties that has been identified is the inconsistent policies that apply to private, BLM, National Forest, and other lands the lines must cross. Don Furman, president of the American Wind Energy Association, feels that we need transmission legislation at the Federal level.
• “Rooftop Solar’ was mentioned by several presenters, but when I talked to Keven Groenwald, general manager of the NM Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NMRECA) after his presentation, he pointed out that it would take a major retrofit to make our current Otero County Electric Cooperative lines capable of transmitting power two ways, and also development of storage capacity, to allow individual homeowners to ‘sell’ their solar (or wind) generated power back to the coop.
• If you want to learn more, go to the NMSU media site, http://mediasite.nmsu.edu/, and click on the Re-Energize America link. There are many projects already underway, including the DOE development of a software program to help architects and builders to design more energy-efficient commercial and residential buildings. Did you know you can reduce your AC bills by up to 20% by painting your roof white? And there are now coatings for shingles so you don’t have to re-roof your house.

The suggestion about painting your roof white made me more aware of the significance of our melting glaciers. As an article in the September 4, 2009 Washington Post points out (Emissions Linked to End of 2,000-Year Arctic Trend), “...higher Arctic temperatures could cause the release of massive amounts of greenhouse gases from permafrost as well as further reductions in the sea ice that reflects warming sunlight.” Your roof can reflect that sunlight back into outer space too, instead of absorbing it and re-radiating it at the low-energy frequencies that heat up the CO 2 and water in the atmosphere.

Secretary Chu said, “We need a new industrial revolution to ensure American competitiveness.” Congressman Teague said, “Our end goal is energy independence. Congress should set the direction, but let technology, and entrepreneurs, and the science decide how we should get there.” His Re-Energize America conference brought us closer to developing a plan for America and, through our leadership, for the world.

 

 

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